But Australia, even in transition have a confident captain in Micheal Clarke in ominous batting form. A firing opening combination, stable middle order, in form all rounders in Henriques & Maxwell and a strong pace bowling unit. India on the other hand have their struggles beginning right at the top. With Gambhir being dropped and Dhawan, Vijay being included Sehwag will have a new partner to start the innings with. Pujara was in bright form against England and will be expected to hold fort against Australia at no 3. Tendulkar, fresh from a hundred against a strong attack in the Irani Cup will look to pile on runs against the Australians and shut his critics. This series will also indicate how long Tendulkar prolongs his test career. Success in this series could mean Tendulkar could play till India's tour of South Africa to guide a younger side in tough conditions against a tough opposition. But failure here could result in retirement. Kohli will be India's no 5 and will have the task of playing with the lower order. Much expected of him is yet to bear fruit. Dhoni, has been facing enormous criticism for his test batting and captaincy. Outcome of this series will decide if Dhoni will continue to captain the test side or selectors will look for the next captain. Indian bowling without Zaheer Khan and Umesh Yadav looks bare. Ashwin & Ojha's inability to spin a web around the English batsmen proved they can be dealt with rather easily and aren't penetrative enough even in favourable conditions. Ishant will lead the pace attack and Bhuvneshwar Kumar is expected to debut after impressive ODI performances.
In my opinion India will do well going in with five batsmen, three spinners and two pacers. India's best chance to challenge Australia will be by attacking them with spin. India's line up for the first test in my humble opinion should be: Sehwag, Dhawan, Pujara, Tendulkar, Kohli, Dhoni, Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar, Harbhajan, Ishant, Ojha.
Australia will depend on Warner and Cowan to give them explosive yet steady starts. Hughes will be the more preferred option for no.3 over Khawaja. Hughes' effectiveness against Indian spinners is to be gauged. Clarke & Watson hold the key for Australia in spinning Indian pitches. Matthew Wade, selected over Brad Haddin will have the task of playing with the tail if need be. Henriques, picked over Maxwell for the first test, will take over the all rounder spot vacated by Watson, now playing purely as batsman. Glenn Maxwell will be crucial as the second spinner and a valuable batsman when selected.
Australia will surely have an edge over India with a very strong bowling attack. Siddle, Pattinson & Starc will have taken notes from how Anderson bowled to the Indian batsmen. Indian batsmen won't have good memories of this pace trio who had them hop, jump, duck, fend & edge in faster, bouncier conditions. According to me Starc is the bowler India needs to be most careful of. He is capable of skidding, curving away from and bringing it back to the right hander which is Sehwag, Tendulkar & Kohli's undoing. Pattinson will come at the Indian will all he's got. Good pace, lovely rhythm and good lengths. Siddle is expected to spearhead this attack and is the only bowler who has played in India conditions before. Bowling in Indian conditions will be Lyon's biggest test in his career up till now. If he can emulate some success that Swann & Panesar had against Indian batsmen few months back, Australia will be well served. His experience of these conditions will help. Mitchell Johnson & Ashton Agar will await their chances in the upcoming tests.
Dhoni & Clarke are both in different stages of their captaincy. Dhoni will set out to prove series loss to England at home was an aberration and the Indian team in transition is still good enough to inflict a series defeat against Australia. He also has a point to prove that he is good enough a batsman and wicket keeper to hold his place in the side even if he wasn't the captain. Clarke on the other hand has had a challenging summer at home against South Africa & Sri Lanka and would be looking to win overseas. South Africa inflicted a rare defeat at home on Australia while they easily thrashed Sri Lanka 3-0. Clarke, in contrast with Dhoni has been in phenomenal personal form with the bat. He will be looking to add to his runs tally from 2012.
My call for the series would be a 1-1 draw as neither team seems to have the firepower to outdo the other. India has too feeble a bowling line up to defeat Australia. And Australia, post Hussey & Ponting's retirement will struggle to hand India a series defeat at home. Drawn series would be a success for India while Australia will look to force a win considering how India played against England.
One last word for Duncan Fletcher for whom this might be the last chance to lead India to a win and salvage some pride after an extremely disappointing two years at the top job.
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